Hydro Quebec's Debt in 2013

Shawn Graham, our infamous (or whatever word you want to use) leader has been heard saying many times over how NB Power has crippling Debt. How the debt has to be slashed to save the province the extrutiating turture of having our children's children pay off that debt.

Here's some numbers on Hydro Quebec's debt.

Current year (these are rounded) $36 Billion
Planned capital investments( more debt) 2009 - 2013 - $18 Billion
Acquisistion of NB Power 2010 - $4.75 Billion

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Fitch-Rates-HydroQuebecs-bw-1426914954.html?x=0&.v=1

Total debt at end of the NB Residential rate freeze will be in the order of $48 Billion. About 2/3 of current asset value of HQ. Of course their assets will grow by the same $23 Billion. Well not True, James at Gov NB on the lower rates site says that NB Power has no value because of it' debt. It's funny how one person's trash is another's treasure. Numbers are from the strategic plan. NB Power debt is about 90% of assets. I hope to be able to show what it would be at the end of 5 years with the status quo.

The strategic plan for Hydro Quebec talks a lot about capital expenditures.
http://www.hydroquebec.com/publications/en/strategic_plan/pop_feuilleter_le.html
The point of view there, is that this will create great ecomonic spinoffs, economic developements, and untold person years of jobs. But in lowly old New BRunswick, heaven forbid we have any of these problems. The HQ Strategic Plan 2009–2013 is a good read.

Back to my big picture theory. HQ has 8.5 Terawatt hours of electricity surplus this year.

http://www.hydroquebec.com/publications/en/strategic_plan/pop_feuilleter_le.html page 3.

8.5 Terwatts of power is 8,500 gigawatt hours or 8,500,000 megawatt hours of electricity.

The projected surplus for the period 2009 to 2013 will total 35.2 Terawatts.

Going rate these days on the open market, well the heck with the open market. Going rate these days in New Brunswick for residential is $95 per megawatt hours. 9.5 cents per kilowatt hour x 1000 to make a megawatt hour.

Lets see: 8,500,000 megawatt hours available in the head ponds doing nothing, is worth , well nothing. 8,500,000 megawatt hours of electricity sold into NB at residential rates is worth :

8,500,000 x 95 = $807,000,000.

Of course, NB Residential did not consume that much last year, so the difference would have to go to small business, who used to pay more for power than residential. I don't know if that rate parity was corrected over the last few rate increases. Subject for another blog.



Some more simple math, Shawn get out your easy button,


$807,000,000 x 5 year rate freeze = Over $ 4 Billion dollars.




I remember a Bill Cosby show from way back when. I remember one day one of Bill's daughter had a boyfreind over. Bill wasn't to struck on him or something he had done. Too make a point he started to describe a wonderful meal. The most succulent, thick, tender, delicious steak that money could buy. Cooked to perfection on a open flame. Served with only the finest sauteed mushroom, and onions. The side servings of vegetables were described as being too die for. The setting was perfect, the company devine. The meal served on the inside of a stinking old garbage can lid. Sounds really appetizing doesn't it. The same thing has been said about this deal on many websites. And there are a few, and all are doing very well what I have been at least attempting to do, giving great information and comentary on this deal. Check out Donald Arsenault getting conftronted in his riding office in Dalhousie on the Save NB Power website.

So Shawn and Keir, at this point, it doesn't matter how good the steak looks, when you serve it on the back of a stinking old garbage can lid, nobody's really going to buy it.

Oh, BTW, I think the steak we being served is as tough as boot leather.
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