MOU

Posted today at that famous website promoting the greatest deal since Churchill Falls.

"I need some help understanding the big picture.

New Bruswick gets their power from NB Power, who gets it from these sources:

Energy generation and purchases
• Renewable energy: 3,445 GWh
• All types of energy: 16,559 GWh
• Proportion of renewable energy: 20.8%

To start, this number is misleading. Because NB only consumes 14,000 Gwh. Right? This is the heritge pool supply from the MOU. Yet here you quote 16,559 (which must include power sold or wheeled through the province.) So does that make renewables a higher source of in province generation?

3445 gwhrs / 14,000 gwhrs = 25% of all in province use from renewables today. In fact it was 26% in 2006/07. Look here : http://www.nbpower.com/html/en/about/operating/holding.html

NB Power Net capacity
• Total: 3,849 MW
• Hydro generating stations (7): 895 MW
• Nuclear generating station (1): 635 MW
• Thermal generating stations (7): 2,319 MW, including 500 MW gas turbines installed by HQ in early 1990's at St. Rose and Millbank that rarely run, and don't even get a mention in the MOU. Also includes Grand Lake (60 MW) that was scheduled to shutdown. Coleson cove is 1000MW and Belledune is 475MW

Other sources of electricity supply
• Wind farm (1): 96 MW
• Natural gas (2): 353 MW
• Other suppliers: 55 MW

There are two wind farms now right? Add another 99 MW for Caribou Mountain that just came on line. That will bump up renewables some. I heard Grand Falls was going to get a capacity increase that would double it's output. Another 66 MW. Again, more renewables added to the mix.

HQ CEO, Mr Vandal, extremely confident Pt. Lepreau will return to service within a month or two of projected date in Jan/Feb 2011. So lots of cheap nuclear for the province there, for 25 years or so.

Belledune fossil station required to stay online for forseeable future to fill gaps in capacity imports to NB from Quebec. Plus it's clean (first flue gas desulpherization unit in Canada - Dalhousie was number 3 by the way.) Belledune has been rated by many independent organizatons as a top plant in North America for reliabilty and costs. Mr Vandal speaks highly of it and plans to keep it running for a long time.

Coleson Cove is a peaker and will be for forseeable future. Again to fill gaps in capacity import restrictions from Quebec. This plant has had major overhauls recently in preparation for Orimulsion, so is ready for a long 25 year run. Especially if it designed to run several thousand hours a year, but only runs for several hundred as a peaker during the cold winter months using expensive bunker. Plus it has one unit converted to run partially on petcoke. These are the leftovers from the oil refinery process, and are available cheap. Fossil, but cheap. Currently also used in Belledune mixed with coal. Again cheap.

The other sources of electricity supply
• Wind farm (1): 96 MW + 99 MW + another 200 MW announced
• Natural gas (2): 353 MW - contracted out, fossil ,but cleaner and more efficient combined cycle units that will run for a long time into the future.
• Other suppliers: 55 MW - this would have to include the biomass unit owned and operated by Frasers.

I know this may be longwinded, but so far, I see no differnece between the stations that NB Power currently runs, and stations that HQ plans to runs in the future. Exception is Dalhousie. And yes, when it's cheap fuel runs out, it would have to be replaced with something, but that's what all this renewables and capacity increases at Grand Falls is for isn't it? Yet, NB Power runs with a "crippling debt", but yet Quebec Hydro can run all the same facilities with a 10% return on investment on a 4.75 billion dollar investment. Meanwhile, the NB goverment racks up a large annual loss from various dividends from NB Power.

Please help me to understand this."

Added this later :

"With renewables making 26% of in province supply now and growing, Pt. Lepreau to make 30% of in province supply soon, contracted others supplying another 20% that consist of clean or renewables, and Belledune (cheap and reliable) basically making up the difference for a long time, (whether under HQ or NB power) what’s the rush???"

Great little article by CBC explaining what most people have aleady figured out.
http://www.cbc.ca/canada/new-brunswick/story/2009/11/27/nb-nbpower-savings.html#socialcomments


Also Found these today. I agree with them for the most part.


http://jvadserve.com/MOUtruth2.pdf

http://jvadserve.com/MOUbetweenthelines.pdf